22 Dec 08: Leeds/Oxford NERC proposal funded
Leeds (Ken Carslaw) and Oxford (Philip Stier) have been successful with a £600k NERC proposal AErosol model RObustness and Sensitivity study for improved climate and air quality prediction (AEROS) or AEROS-Oxford-Leeds (AEROSOL)!
Although aerosol models have developed considerably over the last 15 years, aerosol has persistently been assessed as the largest radiative forcing uncertainty (IPCC, 2007). International model intercomparisons have been very successful in quantifying aerosol model diversity. However, the attribution of differences to specific processes has been limited, so it has not been possible to identify and then reduce the key sources of model uncertainty.
In AEROS we propose to tackle the persistent aerosol model uncertainty in a new way. We will use 4 advanced 3-D regional and global aerosol models (including GLOMAP) and a range of statistical tools and uncertainty analysis techniques to quantify the sources of model uncertainty at the process level and separate the uncertainties due to parameters and model structures. Model microphysical and radiative properties will be assessed at many levels of detail and spatial scale using a synthesis of aircraft, ground, remote-sensed and satellite observations from the most intensive aerosol field campaign ever conducted over Europe. The outcome will be a new understanding of model performance versus complexity, greatly improved confidence in aerosol model predictions, and an objective strategy for their future development.
AEROS contains a significant element of Knowledge Exchange with the Met Office, EMEP and the AEROCOM project.
22/12/08 15:13