- Centre for Ecology and Conservation
- School of Biosciences
- University of Exeter
- Cornwall Campus
- Penryn
- TR10 9EZ
- UK
- +44 (0)1326 255 968
Ilya Maclean - Research Interests
I develop and use models to predict the ecological consequences of environmental change, as I believe it is possible to do so meaningfully. My recent work is founded on a dilemma. Ecological models are usually calibrated statistically, so there is no guarantee that they perform well under novel circumstances such as future climate change. The alternative: mechanistic models, are often exceedingly complex and have component processes that vary considerably in space and time. If these processes are not modelled at sufficiently high resolution, then predictions will be inherently inaccurate.
Where possible, I integrate mechanisms into models and test predictions empirically, pushing the current limits of computing capabilities to incorporate fine-scale processes. I usually use remotely-derived data to facilitate predictions over meaningful scales or develop new algorithms to simplify processes. I try to keep my research policy-relevant and focused on solutions to environmental problems.
I currently work with colleagues in Geography and English on an interdisciplinary project concerned with understanding the effects of climate change in Cornwall. I attempt to predict the future impacts of climate change on species and habitats perceived as particularly important, using these systems to refine predictive-methodologies. I was previously a Research Ecologist at the British Trust for Ornithology, where I delivered research and policy-advice relating to the status of waterbirds in the UK. I have also worked on forest and wetland systems in East Africa.
Full webpage: click here
Up-to-date list of publications: click here