- School of Environmental Sciences
- University of East Anglia
- Norwich
- NR4 7TJ
- UK
- +44 (0)1603 591343
Email: paul.munday12’at’gmail.com
PhD Title
Downscaling scenarios to local landscapes: a case study of the Norfolk Broads
PhD overview
Paul is in the final year of a PhD supervised by Dr. Andy Jones, Prof. Andrew Lovett and Dr. Paul Dolman. His PhD is funded by both NERC and the ESRC.
The research utilises a multi-disciplinary approach to downscale scenario datasets to local landscapes. As part of his studies he is investigating the impacts of climatic and socio-economic change upon the Norfolk Broads.
Socio-economic and climate change scenarios are adopted as a tool to explore the types, and diversity, of changes that may occur to the year 2100. The study utilises a GIS-based methodology to investigate the likely reaction of this sensitive landscape to future drivers of change (e.g. agricultural policy and climate change).
The output of his research is a series of future land use maps describing the reaction of the area to these types of drivers of change. The maps have also been utilised to identify areas of future conservation opportunity for two breeding waders. These types of spatially detailed maps help to drive three-dimensional computer visualisations of future landscape which may provide input into future policy and decision-making.
The final stage of the study determines the manner by which the downscaling of such coarse-scale datasets can aid decision-making regarding landscape/land use management of environmentally sensitive areas.
Paul has a BSc in Geography and Physical Geography from Oxford Brookes University and an MSc in Climate Change from the University of East Anglia.
Paul’s CV and references are available upon request.
Research interests
-GIS and environmental decision making
-Climate change
-Conservation and landscape ecology
-Landscape visualisation and animation
Publications
Munday, P., Jones, A.P. and Lovett, A.A., 2010. Utilising scenarios to facilitate multi-objective land use modelling for Broadland, UK, to 2100. Transactions in GIS, 14 (3), 241–263.
Munday, P., Jones, A.P., Dolman, P.D. and Lovett, A.A. 2009. Proceedings of the GIS Research UK 17th Annual Conference, 79–83.
Munday, P. and Jones, A.P. (in review). A framework for developing high-resolution scenarios at the landscape-scale: the Norfolk Broads. Environment and Urban Planning B.
Munday, P., Jones, A.P., Lovett, A.A. and Dolman, P. (in prep). Identifying conservation opportunities under future land use scenarios: a case study of redshank (Tringa tetanus) and bittern (Botaurus stellaris). Intended for submission in Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment.
Research Affiliation
Zuckerman Institute for Connective Environmental
Research
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
PhD abstract
Our ability to analyse, forecast, and model future changes in policy and the environment has improved dramatically in the last few decades. However, there still remain large uncertainties in predicting likely changes. Scenarios and land use data are often used as tools for investigating the possible future reaction of landscapes to climatic or socio-economic perturbation. Yet, a number of factors may limit scenario application within local landscapes, particularly with regard to coarse spatial resolution and inapplicability of scenario narratives at such fine scales. This study applies coarse resolution scenarios and land use datasets, via a process of downscaling, to local landscapes and explores some of the consequences for biodiversity. It provides input into local landscape management and decision making. The study focuses on the Norfolk Broads, an internationally important wetland in the UK.
Landscape characterisation data is incorporated to provide localised drivers of change whilst existing scenarios and land use datasets from the most relevant scenario-based project is utilised to help translate these localised drivers of change to individual land parcels. Using a GIS methodology, land use change data from the RegIS scenario-based project is downscaled to the study area under four future scenarios and to the year 2100. The output is a set of localised scenarios and narratives that describes the reaction of the area to national and regional-scale drivers. Results suggest that the downscaling methodology developed here provides a means of producing landscape data which are of high spatial resolution from coarse input data, and hence may form an important input into the landscape planning and management process.
In order to illustrate an application of the localised land use data, two contrasting biodiversity scenarios are developed for two important breeding wader species (redshank and bittern) and land parcels delineated which may provide suitable habitat. Estimates are also made regarding the population densities that these suitable areas could sustain. Whilst there are a number of potentially suitable land parcels for redshank and bittern, local uptake rates of agri-environment schemes suggests that many of these suitable areas are unlikely to be realised in the near future given current policy. Nonetheless, the methodology presented here provides an alternative procedure to help identify areas of conservation opportunity and provides input into local decision-making processes.
In the final chapter, the utility of the downscaling approach developed in this study is evaluated in the context of local land use management planning to provide feedback into the current policy mix. Informal interviews are undertaken with a range of stakeholders, and the opportunities and barriers to the implementation of the methodology presented in the thesis are explored.